Watch Report 2024: Rolex extends its market dominance

Watch Report 2024: Rolex extends its market dominance

Morgan Stanley's annual report on the state of the Swiss watch industry, which is compiled with the support of the Geneva-based consultancy LuxeConsult and is based on estimates of the sales of 50 Swiss watch brands, is eagerly awaited each year and attracts a great deal of attention in the industry.

Rolex remains the undisputed number 1, as shown by the enormous difference in market share compared to Cartier, the number 2 in the ranking.

However, the weaker demand also had an impact on Rolex. Last year, there were only around 20 models left on the infamous waiting lists.

The weaker demand also had an impact on Rolex, which only has a small number - around 20 references - on waiting lists in 2024. The smaller sister brand Tudor was hit much harder. Morgan Stanley/Luxeconsult assumes a 34 per cent drop in sales. This would make Tudor the brand with the worst performance in 2024 among the 50 Swiss watch brands surveyed.

Oliver Müller, owner of LuxeConsult: "The fact is: in 2024, only eleven brands - in our top 50 rating - were in the green zone," says Müller.

The modest result of the Export statistics of the Swiss watch industry for the past year (-2.8 %) confirms this. And a recovery is not in sight, as the main reason for the tense situation - the declining demand in China - will not disappear into thin air in 2025 either. In addition, further challenges await Swiss watch manufacturers.

Oliver Müller has summarised and explained the most important findings for BILANZ (the business magazine of the Swiss Handelszeitung). (Here you will find only an extract.)

• The polarisation continued: The "Big Four" - Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille - have secured and expanded their position and have a market share of 47 per cent.
• Rolex gained market share in a shrinking market: The brand with the crown expanded its market power to a share of 32 per cent despite a shrinking market.
• Cartier consolidated its position as No. 2: A market share of eight per cent was enough for the Richemont brand.
• Richemont's watch segment has lost market share: All eight brands lagged behind the Swiss watch market.
• The club of sales billionaires has shrunk to seven: After just one year, Vacheron Constantin (Richemont) was kicked out of this exclusive club, which now includes Rolex, Cartier, Omega, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille and Longines, according to the report by Mogan Stanley/Luxeconsult.
• Of the 400 or so Swiss watch brands, four generate a good 50 per cent of the total turnover of the Swiss watch industry: Rolex, Cartier, Omega and Patek Philippe.
• Patek Philippe has a market share of 6.5 per cent: That is more than the entire LVMH watch division.
• The Swatch Group again lost the most market share: The Morgan Stanley/Luxeconsult report assumes that the Rolex Group's market share will have already surpassed that of the Swatch Group for the first time in 2020.
• Premiumisation continued and even accelerated: Watches with a retail price of over CHF 50,000 accounted for 33.5 per cent of the total value of Swiss watch exports, but 84 per cent of growth and only 1.2 per cent of the total volume in 2024.
• The impact of smartwatches on the entry-level price range has decreased: After years of very strong growth following the launch of the Apple Watch in 2015, sales of smartwatches are stagnating.
• Pricing was a problem for the Swiss watch industry in 2024: A number of brands that had possibly raised prices indiscriminately over the last four to five years were confronted with significant declines in sales.
• The most important market share winners in 2024 (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille) are privately owned: This is a unique phenomenon in the luxury goods sector; in most other sectors, listed companies are gaining market share.
• Some brands had a particularly challenging year: Within the top 50, Morgan Stanley/Luxeconsult estimates that four brands will see their sales fall by 20 per cent or more in 2024: Longines, Breguet, Hublot and Tudor.
• Hermès is likely to report a surprising drop in sales of seven per cent and a 1.2 per cent loss in market share: between 2018 and 2023, Hermès Watches' sales increased significantly.
• LVMH is now the fifth largest Swiss watch group, with a share of 5.7 per cent: Over the last 20 to 30 years, the watch category is the only category in which LVMH has not been able to gain market share through organic growth.
• 2024 was the year of independent brands: The rise of high-end brands such as FP Journe, H.Moser & Cie and Greubel Forsey observed in 2023 continued this year.