HDE consumer barometer in October: consumer sentiment rises slightly

Surprise! After the September forecast had predicted a rather poor consumer mood until the end of the year, the consumer barometer rose slightly in October. Nevertheless, the German Retail Association is not optimistic and economic expectations remain low.

Left: Consumer sentiment in October: a little more spending mood, no optimism for the economy. © freepik

Slight optimism in October

A look back at September: the results of the consumer survey conducted by the German Retail Association (HDE) were anything but good. The last month of the third quarter was the first in 2025 to see a noticeable deterioration in consumer sentiment. The HDE described this as a trend reversal that will continue until the end of the year.

Surprisingly, things are now looking a little different. According to the latest consumer barometer, consumer sentiment is a little more optimistic in October. The index has risen slightly compared to the previous month - but there is no sign of a clear surge in sentiment.

The slight improvement in consumer sentiment is reflected, among other things, in consumers' slightly better mood to spend. Their propensity to buy increased compared to the previous month, while their propensity to save remained almost unchanged. A shift in spending behaviour from saving to spending can be observed. However, an upturn in consumption is not yet in sight. A noticeable recovery in private consumption is not expected to materialise until next year at the earliest. It is also possible that consumer sentiment will pick up a little in view of the upcoming Christmas shopping season.

Pessimistic view of the economy

However, the fact that hopes of an imminent economic recovery have recently dimmed again is also reflected in consumer expectations. Economic forecasts have recently been revised downwards in many cases, and the mood in the economy has also deteriorated. Consumers are therefore also taking a more pessimistic view of future economic development. Their economic expectations have fallen compared to the previous month. While the start of the new federal government was initially associated with hopes of overall economic growth, the unfulfilled expectations are now turning into disappointment. However, consumer pessimism is limited to the economic outlook, with income expectations rising compared to the previous month.

About the HDE Consumer Barometer

The HDE Consumer Barometer, which is published on the first Monday of each month, is based on a monthly survey of 1,600 people on their propensity to buy, propensity to save, financial situation and other consumption-related factors. The consumption barometer, which is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of the HDE, serves as an indicator for private consumption. It does not reflect current consumer behaviour, but rather the expected mood over the next three months.