Between value and change – are diamond prices falling?

And how the market for natural and synthetic stones is changing

Gold prices at unprecedented heights, consumer sentiment rather subdued, and what's happening with diamonds? The diamond industry is undergoing a transformation. While natural stones are trying to assert their status as symbols of rarity and durability, prices for synthetic ones are falling at a pace that surprises even experienced market observers. Over the past six months, the price structure has shifted noticeably—and with it, the perception of value, luxury, and sustainability.

Natural diamonds: stability with cracks

The international market for natural diamonds currently presents a mixed picture. A Femzen analysis for March 2025 documents slight declines in top qualities: D/FL diamonds fell from US$1,374 in February to US$1,092 in March. At the same time, some medium-quality F/VVS1 stones again rose slightly from US$8,495 to US$8,507. A recent report by Economic Times even reports a price increase of up to 10% for selected natural diamonds, triggered, among other things, by higher demand from India and West Asia.

Nevertheless, the price pressure remains noticeable: The Guardian reports a decline in average prices for natural stones of approximately 26% compared to their peak two years ago. The data shows that high-quality large stones tend to retain their value better, while standardized sizes and qualities are increasingly coming under pressure.

Lab-Grown Diamonds: Shine without Permanence

The development in the synthetic segment is quite different. An analysis by VIRA Diamonds describes the decline in value: From 2018 to today, a 1-carat Lab-cut diamond has fallen to only around 10% of its original value. Trade in synthetic stones is also slowing: wholesale trade for 1-3 carat Lab-cut diamonds suffered a decline of 6.7% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with an annual decline of around 42%.Accio)

The consequences: Synthetic stones are increasingly seen as a manufactured product with massive price dynamics – rarity is hardly noticed anymore.

Value in transition

While the natural diamond retains its aura of uniqueness, the lab-grown diamond increasingly loses this, but at the same time still manifests itself as a cheap alternative, especially in view of the high price of gold.

Should you invest in natural diamonds?

The question cannot be answered in one sentence – but the data provides clues:

• Yes, when it comes to rare stones: large stones with exceptional color, clarity or origin still have value potential.
• NoWhen it comes to standard sizes or synthetic alternatives, the resale value of lab-grown diamonds is very limited – studies cite only 20–40% of the original purchase price.
• The decisive factor remains the Quality and also e.g. Attitude towards the brand: Someone who purchases a stone for aesthetic, emotional or symbolic reasons makes a different decision than someone who is looking for a return on investment.

In summary:

The diamond market reflects the transformation of the luxury industry as a whole: tradition and technology, emotion and efficiency, rarity and sustainability – everything is merging into a new understanding of value. What remains is the brilliance. Only its origins are changing.

Sources & References

• Gemological Institute of America (GIA): Current studies on quality assessment and standardization of synthetic diamonds.
• Accio Market Report (2025): Analysis of wholesale price trends for natural and synthetic diamonds.
• Antwerp World Diamond Center (AWDC): Market analysis of the price relationship between natural and lab-grown diamonds (2025).
• Financial Times (2025): “Lab-grown diamonds lose their sparkle” – report on price declines and market shifts.