Excellent export figures, subdued trade

What the BVSU figures for October 2025 and the Christmas season 2025 reveal about the jewelry and watch industry

The current figures of the BVSU The figures for October 2025 also paint a positive picture at first glance: German jewelry and watch exports are reaching new record highs, particularly in the jewelry segment. With approximately 679 million euros Jewelry exports mark the highest monthly value since 2021, and watch exports are also clearly above the previous year's level.

However, this international strength stands in striking contrast to the mood in brick-and-mortar retail, especially during the Christmas season of 2025.

Export strength remains – import pressure increases

On the foreign trade side, a familiar pattern is confirmed: While exports are growing, so too are imports. Imports Significantly. In the jewelry sector, they clearly exceeded exports in October 2025. This indicates more intense competition in the German market and increases margin pressure along the value chain.

This development was already the subject of the INSIGHT-LUXURY article. „"Brilliant figures – and yet growing concerns"“Internationally, there is demand for jewelry and watches „Made in Germany“, but the market environment is becoming more complex, costly and competitive.

Retail: Subdued consumer sentiment despite high expectations

While the foreign trade figures signal strength, the Retail trade Significantly more subdued towards the end of the year. Trend survey by the German Retail Federation (HDE) The survey of around 300 companies clearly shows that the Christmas business was disappointing for many retailers until just before the fourth Advent.

• 62 percent The surveyed retailers were dissatisfied with their sales at that time.,
• only 23 percent They appear satisfied.
• Overall, only rated 17 percent the course of the Christmas business positively, while 66 percent were dissatisfied.

The main stress factor is decreased customer traffic named: 71 percent Retailers report fewer visitors than last year. While there were slight increases in activity in city centers on certain days – especially Saturdays – which partially benefited toy, book, and clothing stores, there is no evidence of a sustained upswing.

We do not yet have any figures from the industry, so it remains to be seen whether these assessments also apply to the watch and jewelry trade, but the trend is likely to be similar here as well.

^{(Source: HDE press release dated December 21, 2025)}

Parallels and breaks between foreign trade and the domestic market

The comparison of BVSU and HDE figures reveals a key tension:
The industry is producing and exporting successfully – however, the domestic market is consuming cautiously.

This discrepancy should not be interpreted as a contradiction, but rather as a structural shift. While international markets continue to generate demand, domestic consumer sentiment remains tense. Price sensitivity, uncertainty, and selective purchasing behavior characterize the situation – factors that particularly affect brick-and-mortar retail.

Whether the Final sprint until Christmas Eve as well as the traditionally high-revenue days between Christmas and New Year's Whether the first few days of January, when vouchers are redeemed and cash gifts are given out, can contribute anything further to satisfaction will be seen in the coming days. For the year as a whole, the German Retail Federation (HDE) expects retail sales of [amount missing] in November and December. 126.2 billion euros, a nominal increase of 1.5 percent Compared to the previous year – solid, but without real momentum.

The current figures show a fragile balance

Internationally, demand remains strong, but domestically, purchasing decisions are more selective. High-quality products requiring explanation need clear positioning, trust, and value propositions – mere presence is no longer enough.

Export successes and import pressures are meeting a cautious domestic market. In addition, precious metal and material prices remain high and volatile., This complicates calculations and puts additional pressure on margins. For manufacturers, brands, and retailers, this means that growth must be strategically secured – through differentiation, clear value propositions, and a realistic understanding of consumer sentiment.

^{Regarding the BVSU figures from December 19, 2025: All figures published here refer to import and export values and not to consumer prices. The figures are collected by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany and do not reflect the results of individual companies. The data may be subsequently corrected or adjusted by the Federal Statistical Office. The figures from the most recent publication apply.}