Long-term analysis by Chrono24: Rolex Not Among the Winners in the Pre-owned Market
Since 2018, 16 watch models have more than doubled in value on the online watch portal Chrono24, and their prices continued to rise even after the boom ended (in 2022). Not a single Rolex is among them.
Instead, the surprise winner is Cartier’s “Tank Vermeil,” which tops the Chrono24 rankings with a 299 percent increase—and was still available for under $1,000 in 2018. An analysis of Chrono24 data since 2018 revealed that the strongest increases in value are not found among the most expensive watches, but rather among models that were in the low to mid four-figure range in 2018.
Chrono24: The biggest winners since 2018 are neither the most expensive nor the best-known watches.
For this study, data analysts at Chrono24 analyzed price trends for several thousand watch models over two time periods: the past eight years (2018–2026) and the past four years (2022–2026).
The methodology thus captures both the speculative COVID-19 boom and the subsequent correction, specifically identifying those models whose value not only rose over the long term but also continued to appreciate in the market environment of the past four years.
The Top Performers: Affordable Classics Instead of Expensive Icons
The list of the top performers in terms of value appreciation contradicts a common assumption: those looking to preserve value over the long term in 2018 did not have to invest five-figure sums to do so. On the contrary—many of the top performers at the time were available for prices in the low to mid four-figure range.
Cartier’s “Tank Vermeil” (Ref. 1613) tops the rankings with a 299 percent increase—despite an entry-level price that was still in the low three-digit range in 2018.
Cartier’s two-tone “Panthère” (Ref. 1057917) saw a 208 percent increase, and the yellow gold “Panthère” (Ref. 1070) saw a 218 percent increase. Omega also made the list with several models: The “Speedmaster” (Ref. 3310.10) rose by 119 percent, and the “Seamaster Aqua Terra” (Ref. 2517.30) by 83 percent.
In total, the top 20 watches with the highest appreciation in value include ten Cartier models, five from Omega, and two from Jaeger-LeCoultre—but not a single Rolex.
The Rolex Myth Put to the Test
Rolex remains by far the best-known and most traded brand on the secondary market. However, in Chrono24’s ranking of brands with uninterrupted value growth, Rolex appears much further down the list. The “Datejust 41” (Ref. 126334)—one of the top-selling Rolex references on Chrono24—has seen a 59 percent increase since 2018. Solid, but far from the triple-digit growth rates of the top tier.
The reason: Rolex models were already relatively highly valued in 2018 and were driven particularly strongly by speculative demand during the pandemic years. Once the boom ended, prices stabilized at a high level or declined slightly—leaving little room for triple-digit returns.
The COVID-19 Stress Test
The Chrono24 analysis interprets the COVID-19 bubble as a natural stress test. Between 2020 and 2022, prices for many well-known models skyrocketed—driven not by collectors, but by speculators who treated watches as short-term financial products.
The subsequent correction hit the most hyped models particularly hard: Patek Philippe’s “Nautilus” (Ref. 5712/1A) has lost around 45 percent since its 2022 peak, but is still trading at nearly three times its 2018 level. Vacheron Constantin’s “Overseas” (Ref. 4500V) has given up more than half of its peak value. Hublot’s “Big Bang” (Ref. 301.SB.131.RX) did not even benefit from the boom and has lost another 20 percent since 2022.
The 16 models, whose numbers more than doubled over both periods, share a common characteristic, according to Chrono24: their appreciation in value was driven not by speculation but by organic growth in demand that withstood the market correction.
Outlook
A look at the Chrono24 market index, ChronoPulse, reveals a positive trend. While the index has risen by 2.5 percent over the past year, momentum has picked up significantly in the second half of the year: over the past six months, the market has grown by 5.2 percent. This upward trend is also continuing steadily in the short term (+2.9% over 3 months, +1.2% in the last month), indicating a return to broad buyer demand.
“This analysis dispels a common misconception: you don’t need to spend five figures on a ‘Nautilus’ or ‘Royal Oak’ to buy a watch that will appreciate in value over the long term. Some of the best performers of the past eight years were available in 2018 for a fraction of that price. What these models have in common is not their price, but their substance: iconic design that stands the test of time, and demand that depends not on waiting lists, but on genuine collector’s value.”
Balazs Ferenczi, Head of Brand Engagement at Chrono24
Methodology: The report is based on an analysis of the sales price trends for several thousand watch models on Chrono24’s global online marketplace. The average sales prices from February 2018 and February 2022 were compared with current sales prices (February 2026). The ranking of the strongest increases in value includes only models that recorded positive price trends in both the 8-year period (2018–2026) and the 4-year period (2022–2026).
