My watch month of October: A new era for the industry!?

The switch from summer to winter time on October 26th went smoothly. Even though most people would prefer to do without it.

Many perceive the effects of the "new era" as rather negative, until after a few days the whole thing is forgotten. Until the next change in March of next year.

In the watch industry, the narrative of a new era is gaining increasing and persistent traction. Many believe that the industry's carefree days are slowly but surely coming to an end. This doesn't mean everything is bad and that decline is imminent. Not at all. But it does mean that a bit more effort is required to convert a potential customer into a willing buyer.

One indicator is still the Export statistics of the Swiss watch industryThis is still being greatly disrupted by the erratic tariff policy of the USA.

A rollercoaster of emotions

After a Exports to the USA increased by 150 percent. In April, following the announcement of Trump's tariffs, the Swiss watch industry experienced two sharp declines (May -25.3%, June -17.6%). In July, however, the industry recorded a 45% increase. Stockpiling was once again the order of the day after the US imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports starting August 7th. Exports then declined significantly again in August compared to the same period last year (-23.9%).

September now presented itself with a A decrease of 55.6 percent This represents the lowest point to date for Swiss watch exports to the USA. This significant decline negated what was otherwise a quite respectable result. Excluding the USA, September would have shown an increase of 7.8 percent.

Industry expert and owner of LuxeConsult, Oliver Müller, points out, however, with regard to the full warehouses in the USA, that the figures from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) only show sales to retailers, not sales to consumers. And that is ultimately what matters.

Should tariff levels not decrease, although this "remains a pious hope on the Swiss side," Müller told the Swiss business newspaper Handelszeitung, then even brands that have so far avoided doing so will raise their prices.

Whether the customer will go along with it is questionable. And even if "price sensitivity is much more pronounced in the lower price range," says Müller, "no one gets away unscathed if they suddenly have to adjust their prices upwards by more than ten percent."

Is the time ripe for lower profits?

“Unlike traditional industry groups, THMG is based on the principle that profit and purpose must be aligned. Every brand in the portfolio is committed to innovation, excellence and ethical business practices, ensuring that growth is measured not only by financial performance but also by cultural and human impact.”

We'll see how successful he will be as an honorable businessman.

And what is Germany doing?

Even without customs issues, hoping for better times is the order of the day. Watch imports and exports from German manufacturers Exports of watches and watch parts felt the effects of the summer lull this August. At €137 million, exports were down by a good 28 percent compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, August 2024, exports also saw a decline of seven percent. These figures were published in October by the German Association of Jewelry, Watches and Related Silverware (BVSU).

Right in the middle of the summer lull came the news about the big Rolex cancellation wave at German authorized dealers. A total of 40 points of sale are said to be losing their licenses by the end of this year. Rolex, as expected, has not commented and has only confirmed the termination of its partnership with jeweler Rüschenbeck at the end of next year.

However, it can be assumed that new times are also dawning for other Rolex retailers. Without the crown as a reliable source of revenue.

The good news: Gen Z takes its time

Specifically, for the wrist. Those born between 1997 and 2012 adorn their wrists with an unbroken passion for watches, even though smartphones and other constantly visible displays have essentially rendered them superfluous. But perhaps this young generation, about whom much is said, appreciates the "old-fashioned," analog form of timekeeping precisely for this reason. Because it exudes permanence and verifiable reliability, and seems to exert less pressure than digital super-precision.

Gen Z's interest in watches is so significant that – undoubtedly also due to available budgets – they are making their mark, particularly on the pre-owned watch market, with a current focus on dress watches. This is demonstrated by a recent [report/study/etc.]. Chrono24 Fratello study.

Pre-owned watches are on the rise: Germans like watches from bygone eras

Another recent study on preferences in Germany has shown that Eppli Auction and Trading House The study was conducted. The result: Even well-to-do decision-makers in this country appreciate second-hand luxury items. Watches are particularly popular.

My conclusion

The watch world is more exciting than it has been in a long time. This comes with a certain unpredictability in the markets and consumer preferences. That may sound negative, and it certainly is for many brands that aren't at the top level and/or don't have a large group behind them.

As I said, consumers demand genuine effort to serve them, including through innovative and creative products. Watch designers and engineers have long since internalized this, as a glance at the current news This shows that there is no sign here of the gloom and gloom caused by the difficult times.