Market Monitor: Botswana, De Beers, and a New Order in the Diamond Market

Economic pressures, an impending sale of De Beers, and greater control by producing countries: The market for natural diamonds is undergoing a period of fundamental change.

Botswana is one of the countries with particularly close ties to natural diamonds. For decades, its diamond deposits have provided the country with high export earnings, reliable revenue, and economic growth. Precisely for this reason, the extent to which the global market environment has shifted is currently particularly evident here.

According to the World Bank, Botswana’s economy contracted by 2.8 percent in 2024 and posted a further decline of 0.7 percent in 2025. The World Bank cites weak revenue from the diamond industry as the main cause. At the same time, public debt rose from about 22 percent of gross domestic product (2023) to just under 40 percent in 2025. Although the country remains in the investment-grade category—S&P confirmed Botswana’s BBB- rating on September 11, 2026—the outlook remains negative. As a result, the market weakness that has been a topic of discussion for years is increasingly becoming a political and economic test of resilience.

De Beers is set to change hands

At the same time, one of the industry’s key players is facing a fundamental restructuring: Anglo American plans to sell its 85 percent stake in De Beers. Botswana already owns the remaining 15 percent. In July, it was announced that Anglo American had selected the Global Diamond Consortium as the preferred bidder. The consortium is led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny; based on the information available so far, his plan also calls for the participation of the producing countries Angola and Namibia. Botswana itself continues to explore various options for its own role.

The sale has not yet been finalized. As of mid-September, the due diligence process was still underway in Botswana; among other things, it is intended to determine the extent to which the government could participate in a future ownership structure. This scenario alone would have been remarkable a few years ago:

De Beers, which for decades has been synonymous with the power of a single company in the global diamond trade, could in the future be more strongly influenced by the interests of those countries from which a significant portion of its raw materials originate. While the historic De Beers monopoly has long since become a thing of the past, what is new is that the ownership, marketing, and economic interests of the producing countries are now becoming more closely intertwined.

Botswana Wants to Market More of Its Own Products

This trend can already be observed in the joint venture Debswana. It is owned 50-50 by Botswana and De Beers and operates, among others, the major Jwaneng and Orapa mines. Through the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC), Botswana now receives 30 percent of Debswana’s production for its own marketing. Under the agreement finalized in 2025, this share will remain at 30 percent for the first five years before increasing to 40 percent. Should the agreed-upon five-year extension take effect, it would ultimately reach 50 percent. This is creating an increasingly independent marketing channel alongside the traditional distribution through De Beers.

This is about more than just a larger share of the selling price. Botswana is trying to keep a greater portion of the value added within its own borders—from sorting and trading to processing and, in the long term, establishing a stronger position for its own diamonds. This trend can also be observed in other mining regions. The key question is increasingly no longer just who mines the diamonds, but who markets them, documents their origin, and ultimately tells their story.

The Natural Diamond Under Pressure

It is no coincidence that this discussion is gaining momentum right now, as the situation at De Beers highlights the ongoing market difficulties. In 2026, Anglo American once again reduced the book value of the diamond company, after having already had to record a $2.3 billion impairment charge in 2025.

Behind these figures lie several structural developments: persistently weak demand in key consumer markets such as China, high inventory levels in parts of the supply chain, and increasing competition from lab-grown diamonds. De Beers is responding to this by adjusting production volumes and cutting costs. When presenting its half-year results at the end of July, Anglo American continued to speak of “challenging diamond markets” and announced plans to reduce capital expenditures at De Beers. This does not suggest a rapid return to the previous market conditions.

Origin Becomes Part of the Value Proposition

This makes a second development all the more significant: Natural diamonds are increasingly being positioned based on their origin and their economic contribution in the producing countries. Traceability is thus no longer exclusively a matter of compliance or transparency, but is becoming part of the product’s value proposition. The “Beijing Declaration on Natural Diamonds and Sustainable Development,” signed on September 16 in Beijing, demonstrates just how important this issue has become. In it, representatives from Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, as well as from the Chinese and international diamond industries, explicitly emphasize the connection between the natural gemstone and its socioeconomic significance for the countries of origin.

For Botswana, this argument is essential, as diamonds have financed a significant portion of the country’s development for decades—even though the current crisis is also revealing the risks of this economic monoculture. As a result, the industry’s messaging is changing: natural diamonds are no longer expected to appeal solely on the basis of their rarity, beauty, and tradition. Origin, complete traceability, and the demonstrable economic benefits for mining regions are increasingly coming to the forefront as key selling points.

A market is seeking a new equilibrium

It remains to be seen who will own De Beers in the future and when demand for natural diamonds will stabilize on a sustainable basis. However, a lasting shift is evident: While diamond-producing countries are demanding greater influence over marketing and value creation, De Beers must adapt its business model to a weaker market. At the same time, the industry is making greater efforts to define the distinction from synthetic diamonds beyond just physical properties or price.

Botswana thus serves as a prime example of a broader transformation. Today, natural diamonds must provide stronger justification for their value than in the past. For the country, this is not an abstract marketing issue, but a fundamental economic necessity. This is precisely why origin, control over the supply chain, and the distribution of value creation will become the central issues of the next market phase.