Swatch Group criticizes Morgan Stanley study on the Swiss watch market in 2025

In an open letter, the Swatch Group raises serious allegations against the annual publication, which is closely watched in the watch industry. Morgan Stanley's annual report on the state of the Swiss watch industry. This report is prepared with the support of the Geneva-based consulting firm LuxeConsult and is based on sales estimates of 50 Swiss watch brands.

„2025 was a year of uncertainty – and required agility, discipline, and strategic clarity from the CEOs of the entire Swiss watch industry,“ summarizes Oliver Müller, industry expert and owner of LuxeConsult, on his LinkedIn account, referring to the recently published report. He notes a massive loss of market share for the Swatch Group.

Open letter from the Swatch Group to Morgan Stanley Investment Management

In an open letter dated February 18 regarding the 9th Watch Report for the year 2025, the Swatch Group accuses the US investment bank and financial services company of poor quality, a lack of verified statements and figures, and completely incorrect estimates.

Specifically, the Swatch Group writes in the open letter about the 2025 watch report:

„"FReputable methodology: The methodology appears to be designed to conceal the inadequate data. This is evident in a multitude of unsubstantiated data points, obvious inaccuracies such as the use of point values instead of ranges to create a false impression of precision, and plausibility checks that sometimes produce absurd results.“

„"Fincorrect results: The figures in the study are highly inaccurate with regard to our brands. Actual sales figures deviate by an average of 24 percent from the figures presented in the study, with a range of -53 to +46 percent for individual brands. The inaccuracies are even more pronounced in the unit sales figures, with an average deviation of 39 percent, fluctuating between -48 and +198 percent. In the case of Hamilton, the actual unit sales are therefore three times higher than reported. A similarly high degree of discrepancy is found in the implied retail prices.“

„"FFalse conclusions: These serious errors make a reliable ranking, such as the one presented in the study, impossible. Given the above-average discrepancies among the Swatch Group brands, Omega, for example, could rank between second and sixth place, instead of being listed in fifth.“

„SHarmful statements: The study contains statements about our companies' sales performance and profits that could seriously undermine the trust of customers and retailers. Some of these false statements are so serious that legal action should be considered in addition to communication measures.“

"Potential conflicts of interest: While Morgan Stanley discloses potential conflicts of interest, the author of the study (LuxeConsult) does not. Since the data sources are allegedly based primarily on information from conversations with brand representatives, this lack of transparency is concerning.“

The Swatch Group concludes that the study is highly speculative and based on unsuitable and unverifiable data sources. "Instead of admitting this, it obscures this weakness through excessive detail, artificial precision, and questionable plausibility checks. Consequently, the figures and conclusions regarding revenue, sales volume, average selling price, market share, and ranking are unusable. Occasionally, the study even contains defamatory and potentially damaging statements."„

The Swatch Group raises these serious allegations in the open letter in detail.