Swatch Group criticizes Morgan Stanley study on the Swiss watch market in 2025
In an open letter, the Swatch Group makes clear accusations against Morgan Stanley’s annual report on the state of the Swiss watch industry, which is published each year and closely followed by the watch industry. The report is produced with the support of the Geneva-based consulting firm LuxeConsult and is based on estimates of sales figures for 50 Swiss watch brands.
“2025 was a year of uncertainty – and required agility, discipline, and strategic clarity from CEOs across the Swiss watch industry,” summarizes Oliver Müller, industry expert and owner of LuxeConsult, on his LinkedIn account in his latest report, which has just been published. He notes that the Swatch Group suffered a massive loss of market share.
Open letter from Swatch Group to Morgan Stanley Investment Management
In an open letter dated February 18 regarding the 9th Watch Report on the year 2025, the Swatch Group accuses the US investment bank and financial services company of poor quality, a lack of verified statements and figures, and completely incorrect estimates.
Specifically, the Swatch Group writes in its open letter about the Watch Report 2025:
Questionable methodology: The methodology appears to be designed to conceal the inadequate data situation. This is evident in a large amount of unfounded data, obvious inaccuracies such as the use of point values instead of ranges to give a false impression of precision, and plausibility checks that sometimes produce absurd results.
“Incorrect results: The figures in the study are highly inaccurate with regard to our brands. The actual sales figures deviate by an average of 24 percent from the figures presented in the study, with a range of -53 to +46 percent for individual brands. The inaccuracies are even more pronounced in terms of unit sales, with an average deviation of 39 percent, ranging from -48 to +198 percent. In the case of Hamilton, the actual unit sales are thus three times higher than stated. A similarly high degree of deviation can be found in the implied retail prices.”
“Incorrect conclusions: These serious errors make it impossible to produce a reliable ranking, as is done in the study. Given the above-average deviations for Swatch Group brands, Omega, for example, could rank between second and sixth place instead of fifth place.”
“Harmful statements: The study contains statements about our companies’ sales development and profits that could seriously undermine the trust of customers and dealers. Some of these false statements are so serious that, in addition to communication measures, legal action should also be considered.”
Potential conflicts of interest: While Morgan Stanley discloses potential conflicts of interest, the author of the study (LuxeConsult) does not. Since the data sources are reportedly based primarily on information from conversations with brand representatives, this lack of transparency is concerning.
The Swatch Group concludes that the study is highly speculative and based on inappropriate and unverifiable data sources. “Instead of admitting this, it obscures this weakness with excessive detail, artificial precision, and questionable plausibility checks. As a result, the figures and conclusions on sales, sales volumes, average selling prices, market shares, and rankings are unusable. In some cases, the study even contains defamatory and potentially damaging statements.”
The Swatch Group details these serious allegations in the open letter.
