Interview with Tim Stracke (Chrono24): “According to rumors, the Royal Pop will only be in production for about eight months.”
Will the Audemars Piguet and Swatch collaboration watch really only be produced for eight months? And is Swatch allowed/expected/going to produce matching straps for the “Royal Pop”?
In an interview with Insight Luxury, Tim Stracke (founder and board member of Chrono24) offers analytical and fascinating insights into the “Royal Pop”—arguably the most talked-about watch of the year (MSRP: €385 or €400)—which led to chaotic scenes outside several Swatch stores when it went on sale.
Insight Luxury: Do you think AP and Swatch should have anticipated the chaotic scenes and taken precautions? Or are they actually pleased with all the media attention?
Tim Stracke: We knew we could expect a huge amount of attention—even though there are hardly any real benchmarks at this level to go by. According to Swatch, social media impressions totaled around eleven billion. That’s an almost absurd figure: on average, that means more than every person in the world would have seen the “Royal Pop.”
Operationally, however, the launch could certainly have been organized better. At times, it seemed quite chaotic—almost symbolic of Swatch’s performance in recent years. People still remember the marketing blunder in China or the Woods affair. To be fair, it must be said that with this much hype, a certain degree of loss of control is almost impossible to avoid entirely.
What everyone involved would probably have liked to see: queues made up mainly of genuine watch enthusiasts, rather than just speculators or opportunists hoping to make a quick profit on the secondary market.
“On average, that means more than one person in the world would have seen ‘Royal Pop.’”
Tim Stracke
IL: Speaking of the Pinball Boys: Do you think they’re the ones mainly responsible for the commotion?
TS: I can’t really say for sure, because I wasn’t in line myself. But based on what’s been reported in the media, scalpers and resellers certainly played a major role.
This has become almost inevitable with drops like this. As soon as a product is artificially limited—according to rumors, the “Royal Pop” will only be produced for about eight months—culturally charged, and immediately tradable, it attracts not only fans but also speculators. That was the case with the “MoonSwatch,” it was the case with other hype products, and it was apparently the case again with the “Royal Pop.”
IL: Will these disturbances have a negative impact on the brand’s image, especially for such an exclusive brand as AP?
TS: I don’t think the chaotic scenes will harm Audemars Piguet in the long run. Such commotion will fade from memory relatively quickly. What will stick in people’s minds is perhaps the biggest watch hype we’ve seen so far. According to Google Trends, interest was at least five times higher than for the “MoonSwatch.” And on Chrono24, we also saw purchase inquiries for the “Royal Pop” at launch that were roughly three times higher than for the “MoonSwatch.”
IL: So, a major coup for the Swatch Group? Despite all the turmoil?
TS: In my view, the commotion is doing more harm to Swatch than to AP. That’s because Swatch is responsible for the retail rollout, and to put it mildly, it was a bit of a flop. With AP, on the other hand, the impression is that this brand is apparently so coveted that even a pop-inspired version of it is causing lines to form worldwide.
“No one is going to buy a ‘Royal Oak’ next week just because of ‘Royal Pop.’”
Tim Stracke
For Audemars Piguet, the benefit is subtle but real. Through this collaboration, AP is reaching a target audience that might otherwise never have come into direct contact with the brand. It’s not a short-term sales strategy, but rather a cultural connection. No one is going to buy a “Royal Oak” next week because of “Royal Pop.” But a great many people have taken a closer look at Audemars Piguet for the first time.
For Swatch, on the other hand, this partnership is a no-brainer—even setting aside the financial success. The brand has received more attention than it has likely ever had, and at a time when it could really use this distraction and the positive energy surrounding it.
IL: Distract from what?
TS: The announcement came a week before the Swatch Group’s Annual General Meeting. There, Steven Wood once again failed in his attempt to join the Board of Directors. In the end, it was not the “Royal Pop” that proved decisive, but the voting structure. The Hayek family controls more than 40 percent of the votes with about a quarter of the capital. Although Wood received strong support among the common shareholders, he failed again at the AGM as a whole.
The “Royal Pop” announcement was more than just a watch announcement. It shifted the narrative. While investors wanted to talk about governance, voting rights, and reforms, the watch industry was talking about Swatch’s next big coup. That doesn’t solve any structural problems. It doesn’t replace a debate on governance. Nor does it provide lasting support for the stock price. In fact, by the day of the AGM, market enthusiasm surrounding the partnership had already cooled significantly compared to the initial 20% “Royal Pop” in the stock price.
“While investors wanted to talk about governance, voting rights, and reforms, the watch industry was talking about Swatch’s next big coup.”
Tim Stracke
IL: What benefits do you see for Audemars Piguet in this complex situation?
TS: For Audemars Piguet, the benefit is more subtle, but just as real. Through this collaboration, AP is reaching a target audience that might otherwise never have come into direct contact with the brand. It’s not a short-term sales strategy, but rather a cultural touchpoint. No one is going to buy a Royal Oak next week because of the Royal Pop. But a great many people have taken a closer look at Audemars Piguet for the first time.
IL: Were Royal Pops actually listed on Chrono24 before the official launch?
TS: We’ve already seen a few listings on Chrono24 ahead of the official launch. However, during this phase, the market is still heavily influenced by speculation; it’s difficult to determine a reliable price at this point.
After the launch, pricing was initially extremely volatile. It’s very clear that the community is still in the process of settling on a realistic secondary market price for “Royal Pop.” There are a few outliers and some ambitious listings, but no truly stable market price yet.
“It’s very clear that the community is still in the process of settling on a realistic secondary market price for the ‘Royal Pop’.”
Tim Stracke
IL: How has the selection on Chrono24 evolved since its launch—in terms of volume and price?
TS: We’ve seen very strong momentum since the product launched. Demand at launch has been significantly higher than for previous Swatch collaborations—about three times higher than for the “MoonSwatch” and about five times higher than for the “Scuba Fifty Fathoms.”
In terms of price, the market remains highly volatile. The majority of actual sales currently fall between 1,000 and 2,000 euros—with top sales exceeding 2,500 euros. Particularly striking: About half of the sales are concentrated very closely in the range between 1,200 and 1,400 euros. This suggests that the market is slowly stabilizing, but has not yet fully settled down.
“Demand at launch was significantly higher than for previous Swatch collaborations—about three times higher than for the ‘MoonSwatch’ and about five times higher than for the ‘Scuba Fifty Fathoms’.”
Tim Stracke
It is also interesting to note that “Royal Pop” is not only engaging existing collectors but also appears to be attracting many new buyers. For a collaboration of this kind, that is probably even more important than the short-term price on the secondary market.
IL: Are there any particularly popular models?
TS: Yes, some clear favorites are already emerging. Currently in particularly high demand are the “Ocho Negro” (the black-and-white version), the “Oro Rosso” in red and pink, and the “Otg Roz” with its turquoise or tri-color dial.
In terms of pricing, the “Huit Blanc” is particularly interesting. It currently commands the highest average selling prices. The “Lan Ba” also commands a higher price than many other models—presumably not least because of the crown at the three o’clock position. It is precisely this detail that makes it particularly attractive to buyers who plan to wear the “Royal Pop” on a modified strap, thereby bringing it as close as possible to the classic AP aesthetic.
Combined with its significantly more subdued color palette compared to the “Otg Roz”—which also features a crown at the 3 o’clock position—this is likely one reason why this model performs particularly well on the secondary market.
This clearly illustrates that demand and the price achieved do not always coincide. Some models are in particularly high demand, while others see greater price appreciation because supply, aesthetics, and collector preferences interact in different ways.
“This illustrates quite well that demand and the price achieved do not always coincide.”
Tim Stracke
IL: What is your short- and medium-term forecast regarding supply volumes and prices?
TS: In the short term, we will likely continue to see high volatility. The highest prices are reached in the first few days and weeks following such a drop, because hype, scarcity, and uncertainty all come into play at the same time. It is precisely during this phase that some buyers pay very high premiums to get in early.
In the medium term, I expect things to return to normal. As more watches enter the market and the initial hype dies down, an equilibrium price will emerge. My guess would be: around 1,000 euros or slightly less. So well above the retail price, but significantly below the initial speculative peaks.
“There are currently rumors circulating that the watch could be in production for about eight months.”
Tim Stracke
IL: And in the long term?
In the long run, a great deal depends on whether the artificial limit will actually hold and how long the Royal Pop will actually remain on the market. Rumors are currently circulating that the watch might be produced for about eight months. However, I can well imagine that this period will ultimately turn out to be significantly shorter—not least because it is presumably in Audemars Piguet’s best interest to wrap up the campaign sooner rather than later.
So if the “Royal Pop” is indeed only available for a limited time, the situation differs significantly from that of the “MoonSwatch,” which is still in production. In that case, prices could remain above the original retail price even in the long term.
“On Chrono24, you occasionally see vintage Swatch models listed for five-figure sums.”
Tim Stracke
Of course, it’s also possible that unworn watches in their original packaging will eventually become collector’s items. On Chrono24, you occasionally see older Swatch models listed for five-figure sums. That doesn’t mean every “Royal Pop” will automatically reach that price point. But with the right models, in the right condition, and given enough time, such a watch can certainly become a collector’s item. This information is provided without guarantee, however.
IL: Third-party manufacturers are already hard at work on wristbands for the Royal Pop. Who do you think will be faster: the third-party manufacturers or Swatch?
TS: Definitely third-party providers. The 3D printing community is huge, fast-moving, and very creative. I’ve already seen some interesting concepts on social media. People will start experimenting very quickly.
“Audemars Piguet will have deliberately maintained a certain distance from the ‘Royal Oak.’”
Tim Stracke
As for Swatch itself, however, I would be skeptical. I can well imagine that Swatch isn’t allowed to produce such bracelets—or at least isn’t supposed to. The fact that the “Royal Pop” was designed as a novelty piece rather than a classic “Royal Oak” interpretation was likely no coincidence. Audemars Piguet would have very deliberately maintained a certain distance from the “Royal Oak.”
“I can well imagine that Swatch isn’t allowed to produce such bracelets at all, or at least shouldn’t.”
Tim Stracke
AP certainly didn’t want to make a budget Royal Oak. From a heritage management perspective, that would be a risky move. That’s why I find it hard to believe that Swatch has a contractual green light to produce additional straps that would make the watch look even more like a “Royal Oak.” Third-party vendors will be much quicker to act and far less hesitant in that regard.
This three-hand “Royal Oak” from Audemars Piguet, featuring a date display, a stainless steel case, and a stainless steel bracelet, costs €28,600. If precious metals and additional complications are added, the price rises significantly. A “Royal Pop” is available starting at €385.
